Fratelli d’Italia Meloni first part. Down PD on M5S

Less than a month after the September 25 political elections overtaken by Giorgia Meloni, one can take a look at the polls to see if anything has changed as the Legislature is about to take off.

According to the latest SWG survey, Fratelli d’Italia is still the party firmly in control of the consensus. The squad led by Giorgia Meloni is stable and alone in the lead at 27%. It is estimated that the distance between the Democratic Party and the Brothers of Italy is growing, with the Democrats being credited with 17%. On the other hand, the distance between the party of Conte and the dem would shrink, where today many are those who foresee an overtaking in the months to come by the M5S, which will become the second formation of the country.

Melons / Photo Ansa / Ettore Ferrari

All the other parties, on the other hand, do not reach 10%. The Lega di Matteo Salvini, for example, gains 0.2% but does not exceed 8.5%. While the Third Pôle d’Action and Italia Viva by Carlo Calenda and Matteo Renzi progressed by 0.1%, but did not reach more than 8.1%. Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia is also growing again, but only by a tenth of a point, rising to 7.5%. Given this initial scenario, it is not difficult to predict and hypothesize what the political objectives of the different parties will be. What changes in direction will we see compared to the past legislature? Who are the comeback parties so far and who are downhill?

Who is chasing the Meloni? The open battle on the left between PD and M5S

If at first sight what seems obvious is the emptiness in the center. Where the third pole of Renzi and Calenda failed to break through and achieve the desired goals. In fact, with the exception of the metropolitan city of Milan, it does not qualify as a third political force. In reality the real duel could be consumed on the left. And the unknowns are not rare: first of all the identity of the next secretary of the Democratic Party; secondly, the political line and the relationship with the grillini, increasingly launched in pursuit of Meloni. The two political forces have long sought evidence of an alliance, often failing to go beyond municipal elections. Conte’s movement unquestionably benefited from Letta’s detachment from the party.

Storytelling / ANSA PHOTO / MAURIZIO BRAMBATTI

To date, in fact, it would be estimated at 16.7%, practically a hair’s breadth from 17% of the PD. This is why it is very likely that Conte will maintain a hard line towards the Democrats in the coming months and aim to become the party of reference for the electorate on the left. After all, the trump card of the grillini remains the “image” – masterfully curated by Rocco Casalino – of the anti-system and anti-caste party. Therefore, suppressing and denying the recent past, often neoliberal and guaranteeing the alliance with the Democratic Party, appears as the most gratifying means of increasing consensus. On the horizon for the PD and the M5S if the future Meloni government does not last the entire legislature, the difficulty and the need to reopen a channel of communication. After all, the political harmony of the past five years shows a basis from which to start all over again.

Within the centre-right coalition: the possible resumption of the League

If the battle for primacy on the left is open. The battle within the center-right, although overwhelmed in the polls by Meloni, still drags on with a lot of unknowns. On the one hand, Forza Italia obtained an unexpected result in the elections, contrary to expectations. On the other hand, the League of Matteo Salvini must regain consensus following the heavy reduction of its consent, without detaching itself or dying suffocated by the political embrace with the Brothers of Italy. But where can he get votes? The space on the right, except for sensational twists, is now saturated by the presence of the formation of the first in pectore. As the elections have sensationally confirmed. Within the center-right coalition, the real challenge is to collect the votes of the abstentions and the center of Calenda and Renzi. Who will succeed?

Salvini / ANSA PHOTO