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China will attack the island by 2023
We have yet to see the end of the dramatic war in Ukraine, as the winds of war grow ever thicker towards the Indo-Pacific front. These are the words of Chinese President Xi Jin Ping pronounced a few days ago at the Communist Party Congress – which reconfirmed him for an unprecedented third term – to suggest that China is ready to resolve the reunification of Taiwan.
According to forecasts by Taiwanese and American intelligence analysts, this “short-term” estimate would consist of a maximum of five months. By 2023 at the latest. If that were to happen, it would be a disaster. Europe now has little time to avoid the worst.
Taiwan fears: China weakening due to ‘chip war’ with Washington
Alarms over the Taiwan issue in the months to come will not subside. The activity of Chinese planes and ships around the island has never ceased since the beginning of August; after US Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei. Xi Jin Ping, who got five more years in power, became China’s most powerful man since Mao’s time. But the internal pressure, due to the blows to the shutdown of the Chinese economic system, is becoming more and more insistent. This is mainly due to the “flea war” taking place between Beijing and Washington, which is likely to produce devastating global effects.
Director-General of the island’s National Security Bureau, Chen Ming-tong, argued that by 2023, Beijing could threaten war and carry out threatening actions, to force Taipei to open negotiations aimed at bringing back the small democratic country under Chinese control. 2023 must therefore be kept under close surveillance “because a lot of things and a lot of information are now changing”. said general manager Chen. Who then explained that “when economic and political conditions in China deteriorate, like now, they may need to deflect internal pressure and then there is the possibility of an attack on Taiwan.”
The risks and the role of Europe in avoiding “a second Ukraine”
A horror film already seen with the war in Ukraine and which unfortunately seems more and more likely to be seen repeated. This time, however, the military attack on Taipei would automatically force the United States to militarily defend the island. Moreover, a war or even a partial shutdown of Taiwan’s economic activity would cause an unprecedented economic disaster. If Europe found itself exposed on the side of the energy supply chain with the war in Ukraine, a Chinese offensive would literally bring the EU economy to its knees. 98% of European semiconductors come from the Indo-Pacific island. And that represents a strategic dependency in a key sector that is much more difficult to fill than energy. The semiconductor market is indeed in the hands of very few countries and requires huge investments.
The latest measures announced by the Biden administration to contain China’s tech boom have placed 31 Chinese entities on the list of “unverified” companies (which prohibits access to US supplies). He then introduced new export bans on American high technology, which also include countries that use American machinery. Actions that show that Sino-American relations are at their lowest. What can Europe and the world do to avoid a “second Ukraine”? This war is already dividing the world, and Europe appears more and more in difficulty in its role of “stability broker”, compared to the “hard” line of the United States. Will he play his game on this scenario?