because the situation in Libya could degenerate and the role of Paris

Emmanuel Macron – Photo by Ansa Foto

Migrants arriving on Italian shores with the help of French NGOs could increase if the situation in Libya deteriorates. The Displacement Tracking Matrix, a program of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) that records flow data, has identified a total of 679,974 migrants of 41 different nationalities who are in around 100 Libyan municipalities.

For now, the situation is under control under the agreements signed by Italy with Tripoli in 2017, which oblige Rome to provide economic aid and technical support to the authorities to reduce migratory flows.

The agreement was renewed thanks to an article which provides for a tacit renewal after three years, for three more. But it could be threatened if General Haftar, currently indicted for the attack on the military college in Tripli, decides to “liberate Libya”.

After the fall of Gaddafi decided by France, the United Kingdom and the United States, there is a provisional government in the country led by Abdel Hamid Dabaiba, increasingly in the balance, both due to the failed political elections last Christmas, and for two other governments.

The first was created in Benghazi, led by Fathi Bashagha (former interior minister of Serraj), the other in Tobruk, who has not yet taken office, led by Khalid Al-Mishri. Bashaga is supported by Haftar and France, although officially the Elysée is pushing for national unity, but from a position opposite to that of the UN and Italy.

Haftar also has on his side the mercenaries of the Wagner Group of Russia whom Bashagha had first criticized in a Times article, only to later withdraw everything with an apology. Haftar, a landmark of Cyrenaica, with an army organized and also supported by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, announced that he was “close to making a decision to determine a path in order to restore the State”.

“Paris continues to offer political support to Haftar”

This proposal could be supported by the Russian mercenaries present on the territory. Russia also recently sent a ship full of ammunition to Benghazi. According to Jalel Harchaoui, a researcher at the Royal United Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London, Paris “continues to offer Haftar at least its diplomatic and political support, and perhaps more”.

A few months ago, Haftar met French Ambassador Béatrice Le Fraper du Hellen in Benghazi, but the content of the discussion remained secret.